Accuracy Of Polls a Question In Itself
Skeptics Challenge Assumptions Made
By Michael Abramowitz
Washington Post Staff Writer
Wednesday, October 29, 2008;
Could the polls be wrong?Sen. John McCain and his allies say that they are. The country, they say, could be headed to a 2008 version of the famous 1948 upset election, with McCain in the role of Harry S. Truman and Sen. Barack Obama as Thomas E. Dewey, lulled into overconfidence by inaccurate polls.
“We believe it is a very close race, and something that is frankly very winnable,” Sarah Simmons, director of strategy for the McCain campaign, said yesterday.
Few analysts outside the McCain campaign appear to share this view. And pollsters this time around will not make the mistake that the Gallup organization made 60 years ago — ending their polling more than a week before the election and missing a last-minute surge in support for Truman. Every day brings dozens of new state and national presidential polls, a trend that is expected to continue up to Election Day.
Still, there appears to be an undercurrent of worry among some polling professionals and academics. One reason is the wide variation in Obama leads: Just yesterday, an array of polls showed the Democrat leading by as little as two points and as much as 15 points. The latest Washington Post-ABC News tracking poll showed the race holding steady, with Obama enjoying a lead of 52 percent to 45 percent among likely voters.
From National Review’s The Corner:
Obama’s Moving Tax Threshold: $250,000? $200,000? $150,000? What Next? [Byron York]
One of the things I’ve seen at Republican rallies is that people just don’t believe Barack Obama when he says he’ll raise taxes only on those who make more than $250,000 a year. It’s not that these people make that much money or even think they’ll make that much money sometime in the next four years. It’s that they believe Obama, once in office, would lower the threshold and raise taxes on people who make less than $250,000.
Obama’s position in the past was that he would raise taxes on families making more than $250,000 a year and individuals making more than $200,000. But in his new ad, “Defining Moment,” he seems to lower it to $200,000 for families. “Here’s what I’ll do as president,” Obama says in the ad. “To deal with our current emergency I’ll launch a rescue plan for the middle class That begins with a tax cut for 95 percent of working Americans. If you have a job, pay taxes and make less than $200,000 a year, you’ll get a tax cut.”
That seems kind of ambiguous, but the graphic on the screen says clearly: “Famlies making less than $200,000 get tax cut.”
Now, the McCain campaign is pointing out something that Joe Biden said in a Pennsylvania TV interview yesterday:
What we’re saying is that $87 billion tax break doesn’t need to go to people making an average of 1.4 million, it should go like it used to. It should go to middle class people — people making under $150,000 a year.”
BZ
Like everyone else, I like it when I’m right, BZ, and I’ve been telling people to ignore the polls for weeks. The polls are tightening up now because if they don’t begin telling the truth the pollsters will lose all credibility, but they should have lost credibility a long time ago. Personally, I believe they’re worthless.
I am NOT Optimistic BZ.. But I never give up, never have, never will.. I do think the battle is not going well and it will take a miracle to win… I have seen miracles in my life, so I am not giving up.
Gayle: pretty much true. We could be VERY surprised!
BZ
Remember this famous Chicago Tribune headline.
Dewey Defeats Truman
Here we go again.
I’m conjure you’re not far off, Shoprat. Though most will believe me exceedingly daft for thinking so.
BZ
I’m feeling hopeful, thanks to your post. Not confident, but hopeful. Maybe we won’t be dealing with a liberal illuminati socialist government for the next four years after all! (Dreamy sigh)
LMB: hey, thanks for the visit, thanks for taking the time to comment, and please come back! There are MANY factors extant in this election that NO ONE on the DEM/MSM are even remotely examining at all.
BZ
Obama is a liar and an asshole, that is the truth…
It’s NOT the polls I worry about, the MSM is ALL POWERFUL in this nation, and they are in the tank FOR Obama…
Maybe no one takes the MSM seriously, maybe… But what if they do?? There’s some weak minded people in this world, they read blogs, newspapers and watch TV, and if they read it here it MUST be a conspiracy against *The One*…
As I said, he can be caught on film committing rape, armed robbery, you name it, and HIS PEOPLE will still vote for him…
Why you ask?? Because they are HIS PEOPLE…
What we have to do, texasfred, is make sure that OUR people are out there at the voting booths come Tuesday.
TF: you’re probably quite correct. But I can’t help but think a lot of very quiet persons will ONLY be expressing their voting preference at the polls next Tuesday.
BZ
BV, we still have 5 days to sway some minds. I have a 9 1/2 minute YouTube clip by a guy named Foster Friess that shows Nobama saying one thing and then something just the opposite onabout 6 topics. It is the best ammunition we have against that empty suit. I am trying to get as many people as possible to spread this around using the blogosphere, but more importantly, e-mail. Here’s the link. http://theaverageamericanparty.blogspot.com/2008/10/foster-friess-on-barack-obama-rhetoric.html
I hope every one will watch this and then pass it along. It is VITAL that millions of people see this BY TUESDAY!