Game on.
Iran decided some time ago to go its own nuclear way despite UN and international community wishes. Their nuclear program has not stopped.
Now:
NASIRIYAH, Iraq (AFP) – Iranian forces took control of a southern Iraqi oil well on a disputed section of the border on Friday, US and Iraqi officials told AFP.
An official of the state-owned South Oil Co in the southeastern city of Amara, and west of the field, said: “An Iranian force arrived at the field early this morning (Friday).
“It took control of Well 4 and raised the Iranian flag even though the well lies in Iraqi territory,” the official added.
“An oil ministry delegation is to travel to the area on Saturday to assess the situation.”
Some interesting notes I’d care to add:
- Iran is the 3rd largest oil producer on the globe;
- Iran is OPEC’s 2nd largest oil producer;
- Iran has been a US adversary for roughly 30 years;
- Iran possesses about 1/10th of the global oil reserves;
- Iran has more than 1/10th of the planet’s reserves of natural gas;
However, it is noteworthy that, after the 1979 revolution (and other factors), Iran has been unable to match its highest (6 million barrels/day) 1974 production rates. Further, Iran’s mature oil fields have declined. A 2007 National Academy of Sciences study specifically awakened Iran’s oil ministers.
The report indicates that, if decline rates are allowed to continue, Iran’s exports (which in 2007 averaged 2.4 million barrels/day) could decrease to zero by 2015. To offset natural decline rates, Iran’s oil fields require structural upgrades including enhanced oil recovery (EOR) efforts such as natural gas injection.
Additionally, Iran can produce oil but lacks major refinery capacity. They cannot even keep pace with domestic demand. Iran would like to hammer out agreements with China, Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore to expand refining capabilities.
Strategically, one must be cognizant of a major point: if an attack on Iran’s nuclear sites occurred, Iran could decide to attack shipping in the Strait of Hormuz — a bottleneck through which 1/5th of the world’s total daily oil demand is carried.
Iran has pushed the Western World’s envelope for some time with its nuclear programs and various alliances.
Now, it pushes in another direction.
BZ
855: I don’t think I could agree more.
BZ
I think that we’re moving closer and closer to the Battle of Armageddon.
BZ- good precis of the issue. Iran, which ARAMCO built into a world power has never upgraded since they threw ARAMCO out. Nobody is going to sell them EOR equipment, and they don’t have the tech base to either build or operate it… good news for us 🙂
That well WILL be taken back, and I’ll bet it won’t be on the news when it happens…
AOW: things, yes, may not be too pretty.
Old NFO: thanks for visiting and thanks for taking the time to comment. I suspect you’re correct about the tech issue; if the well is taken back, will it be the Iraqis or will it be the US?
BZ
Iran also has next to no internal oil refining left: they have not maintained them since the Revolution and both China and Russia want NOTHING to do with that system. Iran also imports 5% or more of its natural gas (which is an outcome of a piss poor refining system), and it gets it from Turkmenistan. The leadership there is in tight with GDF, an extension of the Mogilevich organization that has swindled Russia three times on natural gas transfer agreements and then extorted higher profits from Iran by shutting down natural gas to it via ‘technical difficulties’.
Uh-huh, ‘technical difficulties’, suuuurree. Iran caved to higher payments.
So, when a small country supplying just 5% of its natural gas with the help of a semi-legit/semi-Red Mafia company can make Iran cave by shutting off a mere 5% of its natural gas, what sort of economy would you describe this as?
A) World beater!
B) So-So.
C) Just like Niger, but a bit worse.
D) Decrepit beyond description.
All those lovely enrichment plants… mmmmm… nuclear extortion via long-range missiles. Maybe it will lend a few to its good friend Syria to extend its reach into central Europe. Wake up calls to Rome, Paris and Berlin! Iran calling!
Such ‘smart power’ in DC!
The ‘adults’ are in charge!
You can’t saber-rattle after you tossed the saber into Hopenchangistan! Pity the Poles and the Czechs who trusted us… a bit less pity for the Russians, but scads for the lower ‘stans and caucuses region.
And just when will we get ‘hot pursuit’ into Pakistan? Before or After Iran starts a regional nuclear war? Wouldn’t that be a yummy thing to have happen with a nuclear Iran to help get it started?
So which happens first?
Iran’s economy imploding, or,
Nuclear missiles heading towards Israel?
Pray for the first as it would save us.
Prayer, BTW, is not a strategy, but it is all we have left now.
BZ…thanks for sharing.
This article was glossed over by the major media outlets, but it’s underlying implications are significant as you have clearly pointed out.
If we had a strong POTUS and foreign policy team, we would have found a way to reign in Iran. They aren’t out of control yet, but they are rapidly heading that direction. Add some nukes to the mix and we are going to have our hands full…