When politicians and journalists declare that the science of global warming is settled, they show a regrettable ignorance about how science works. We were treated to another dose of it recently when the experts of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change issued the Summary for Policymakers that puts the political spin on an unfinished scientific dossier on climate change due for publication in a few months’ time. They declared that most of the rise in temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to man-made greenhouse gases.
The small print explains “very likely” as meaning that the experts who made the judgment felt 90% sure about it. Older readers may recall a press conference at Harwell in 1958 when Sir John Cockcroft, Britain’s top nuclear physicist, said he was 90% certain that his lads had achieved controlled nuclear fusion. It turned out that he was wrong. More positively, a 10% uncertainty in any theory is a wide open breach for any latterday Galileo or Einstein to storm through with a better idea. That is how science really works.
Enthusiasm for the global-warming scare also ensures that heatwaves make headlines, while contrary symptoms, such as this winter’s billion-dollar loss of Californian crops to unusual frost, are relegated to the business pages. The early arrival of migrant birds in spring provides colourful evidence for a recent warming of the northern lands. But did anyone tell you that in east Antarctica the Adélie penguins and Cape petrels are turning up at their spring nesting sites around nine days later than they did 50 years ago? While sea-ice has diminished in the Arctic since 1978, it has grown by 8% in the Southern Ocean.
Great post! … but I’m biased because I know the scam that’s behind it … LOL
The Czech president, Vaclav Klaus, made a great statement about this today as well, but the government up here seems to be hell bent on rushing in tax penalties before the final report is out… 🙁
Thanks for the link…
02 12 07
Well BZ:
I have been on the fence about this issue for quite some time. It is difficult to find UNBIASED research about global climate change.
HOWEVER, if humanity didn’t exist, we would still see drastic changes in the weather due to the Earth’s cycle. Whether the weather changes due to alignments of magnetic fields changing or simply that the Earth has an internal weather calendar there are many questions about global climate that we just don’t have answers for. Especially since the Earth is billions of years old and man has only been around for a fraction of that time.
Thus, I find it pretty specious for ANYONE to say that man is solely responsible for our issues with climate! Whoa I have rambled too much. Good article.
I think the point is that we have to take off our blinders and listen to REASON. Thanks:)
ABF: yeah, doggone it, I saw that article AFTER I pubished this post, darn it.
But Mahndisa, that’s exactly the point — the statistics we have from a few years on file, comparatively speaking in the history of the planet, are but a drop in the bucket. There are way too many agendas here, too much name calling, too much finger pointing, which makes me question many of these studies in the first place. Since when does Science threaten people for their opionions unles there IS an agenda attached?
BZ
And some day I’ll learn to scan for typos.
BZ
In my life, I’ve noticed that if you follow the news, global warming is soooo much worse when the USA has a Republican President. Not to worry though, the week a Democrat is elected, it all gets waaaay better. (Of course, everything else gets worse!)